From "Are We Overvaluing Performance Measures?" Effective Clinical Practice, September/October 2000. 5:247-249.
Figure 1. Relationship between baseline risk for a clinical outcome (such as heart attack or blindness) and treatment benefit. The risk for the adverse outcome without treatment is denoted by the upper line. The risk for the outcome after a constant reduction in a risk factor (e.g., reduction in LDL cholesterol level or Hb A1c concentration) is denoted by the lower line. The shaded area represents the benefit of treatment.>